Nigeria’s public debt stock is projected to hit N130tn this year, raising concerns about the country’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio.
This was revealed in a report by Afrinvest, an investment management company, titled, ‘Bank Recapitalisation, Catalyst for a $1tn Economy, ‘ unveiled in Abuja recently.
Nigeria’s public debt stock, which includes external and domestic debt, stood at N121.67tn in the first quarter of 2024, up from N97.34tn in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a growth rate of 24.99 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
Afrinvest estimated that the fiscal deficit, total public debt stock, debt-to-GDP, and debt-servicing-to-revenue rate would exceed N13.0tn, N130tn, 55 per cent, and 60 per cent by 2024 year-end, respectively.
As of Q1 2024, Nigeria’s public debt stock stood at N121.7tn, comprising N77.5tn (63.6 per cent) in domestic debt and N44.2tn (36.4 per cent) in external debt.
The domestic debt includes N44.8tn in Federal Government bonds, N20.3tn in Treasury bills, and N12.4tn in other domestic debt.
The external debt is made up of N14.3tn from multilateral creditors, N10.9tn from bilateral creditors, and N19.0tn from commercial creditors.
The investment management firm in its report, also said the 2024 budget is based on ‘overly optimistic’ revenue assumptions, which could lead to a repeat of the historically disappointing budget performance.
“The expectation of a 43.9 per cent share of the projected revenue from oil and other minerals is unrealistic,” the report stated.
